She was the one who discovered Amazon for Bill. I read the Hot Hand in two sittings and loved it. Cohen has done extensive, thoughtful research. I said, 'Do you have any idea of when you are going to get hot? It is exhilarating. Econometrica , , Vol. Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. Reads like a mystery - you still don't really know if a hot hand can be logically explained until the end.

But that-- Ben Cohen: For the same reason, right? The reason why Romeo doesn't know that Juliet has taken this potion and that she is simply sleeping and not actually dead is because this whole harebrained scheme had not been explained to him because he never gets the letter. WSJ's Ben Cohen on his book and the science of streaks. Yeah, it's going to be great. You will understand everything from the judicial system to basketball better if you read this. Chanel Miller. The author also does a good job of showing a common denominator in a love for basketball among the various people featured in the. DPReview Digital Photography.

It's not about basketball or statistics or art or farming or Shakespeare or any of the other insanely riveting it takes you on. But, you know, the second thing is that when we talk about randomness, especially paralyzing the human mind, in the book I write about Spotify and Ben Cohen: Uh, 10th grade. There is a lot of detailed information about basketball, but even if you don't enjoy sports history, there are enough other fiel This book was fascinating if a bit long. Nick Hornby. Thanks for telling us about the problem. Quite enjoyed this conversation! And, at the end of a long night--I used to grade all my own exams; and they were not, again, not multiple choice, they were--I have a great amount of exams when I taught and-something people--I think there were people at UCLA--because I felt that was important. A little disjointed at times but some fascinating vignettes on the conclusions that can be gleaned logically reading large sets of data.

Sportometrics , by Robert Tollison. Ben Cohen: And of course it's like basically written in a different language if you're in eighth grade. What changed is that it was a plague year. The surprise was how often he surprised me by weaving together fascinating stories and facts and statistics, some from history, some from today until my mind kinda' swirled with thoughts of 'can that be right? The difference between me and Seth C. We come to a different conclusion in our mind. Which is odd cause the first half is spot on in regards to staying on topic and getting to the point. Get A Copy. No, of course.

But, you know, the second thing is that when we talk about randomness, especially paralyzing the human mind, in the book I write about Spotify and-- Russ Roberts: Oh yeah, I'm glad you're talking about this. Showing Liked iT! And, in fact, when I had lunch with David Booth a couple of years ago, he said, 'In many ways, the fundamental question of investing and stock-picking is: Is there such a thing as the hot hand? Joseph Bikart. Interesting journalistic take on hot streaks. It really does raise the question of: how much should we believe experts and professionals when they say this is real? Russ Roberts: And you could argue that feeling is an illusion: it could be. And, then he goes out and he has the game of his life. I mean, he sort of was one of the pioneers of index funds; and he did it at a time when it was a deeply unsexy approach to investing--and again, contrarian.

Pros: 1. And I really love that. It came out in early March, but you wrote it well before. There are no discussion topics on this book yet. And so, this is just a standard real life plausible thing. And it falls apart because the plague is sweeping through and the messenger gets stuck in quarantine. So, when Curry takes that fourth shot and I'm so excited for it to go in and I'm going to get a huge dopamine rush if I am a Golden State Warriors fan, I'm not so stupid to feel that way about the roulette wheel. You will understand everything from the judicial system to basketball better if you read this.

I think it is the really powerful human thirst for causation. And he said, 'A number of them are here today, I'd like them to stand. Romeo comes back and sees her in the open crypt. But, you should have noticed it, sorry Overall, very enjoyable episode, thanks for hosting Russ. The author also does a good job of showing a common denominator in a love for basketball among the various people featured in the. Boston Celtics. Mari Coates. That's one of the things that, I think, is really interesting to think about.

It's just the way that randomness works. I want to say one last thing about basketball--I apologize to the non-basketball fans--but there's an interesting relationship potentially between this phenomenon and what is called 'trash talking' in sports. There were tons of interesting anecdotes and case studies that merged coherently under the umbrella of the study of streaks, spanning Shakespeare and classical music, gambling, the justice system immigration judges , Soviet prisons what a fascinating story , active vs passive investing, and of course basketball. Because we think, 'Well, what happened that day? Ben is a charming writer who turns the complex into a digestible and fun read that even a simpleton like me can easily understand. Robert Matthews. But, he understands that in his industry, in his environment where he is really at the mercy of chance and something as random as the weather, if he bets the farm on believing in the hot hand, he can lose everything. And, they were beaming. I mean, because even if there is such a thing as the hot hand, I think that we can all agree that it is not the fireball from NBA Jam [National Basketball Association Jam] in our imagination. And I think that's actually pretty common in journalism.

Get to Know Us. Using SportVU data, they were able to study over 83, shots from the season. NBA Jam also conditioned many people to believe in the hot hand including a kid named Stephen Curry whose father, Dell Curry , was in the game. But the part that actually separates it from randomness, I think is alluded to in one of the studies that you talk about in the book, which is that when a person feels they're in that zone, they're not taking a random selection of three pointers. As far as I know there aren't really any other books that cover this subject extensively like this one does. A little disjointed at times but some fascinating vignettes on the conclusions that can be gleaned logically reading large sets of data. Cohen also exposes how streak-related incentives can be manipulated, from the five-syllable word that helped break arcade profit records to an arc of black paint that allowed Stephen Curry to transform from future junior high coach into the greatest three-point shooter in NBA history. I mean, farmers understand you have to play the long game. Shashi Tharoor. It's an independent spin.

So, for Steph Curry to take a shot when he's hot and to turn around knowing it's going in, think about that. Steph Curry has taken tens of millions of shots over the course of his life and he says that what is happening in those moments is different. I enjoyed every one of them, Ben. Well, there are contrarians everywhere you look in the story of the hot hand. You feel like you're in the zone. Goodreads helps you keep track of books you want to read. He was this statistical savant because--in part because he bothered to keep track of the chronology of shots. Amazon Advertising Find, attract, and engage customers. Russ Roberts: And, as you point out, which I thought was a brilliant insight--it's four lines where the guy says to the other guy, 'Oh, did you get that message to Romeo? I'm going to give you my take on the mistake that people made in the literature and get your reaction.

No real new information in here but a lot of fun stories nicely interwoven. It's an extraordinarily fabulous movie where Tom Stoppard--my favorite living playwright, wrote a good chunk of the screenplay, where he co-wrote it; I don't know how much of it is his. They studied in-game stats and had players shoot jumpers and predict whether the ball would go in prior to each attempt. But the ball is still in his hands. And he donated them back to Kansas University where he went to school and where he grew up a half a mile away. And, that is a trivial example. Daniel Kahneman. Russ Roberts: Well, let's turn to Shakespeare. Average rating 3. And the reason he doesn't get the message is?

There's a problem loading this menu right now. Larry Bird is doing it in a three point contest with no defender. Just one other thing about writing, I think is interesting. Ben Cohen: Well, the interesting thing of course, is that the Gambler's Fallacy, in many ways, is the corollary of the hot hand Its characters are interesting and vivid. And yet, in basketball, we say all the time that when Steph Curry hit six 3-pointers in a row, we're confident saying, 'See, he's on fire. But that I used to think about this a lot because there was a mutual fund--I'm going to get it wrong, so I apologize to listeners--but I think it was PIMCO [Pacific Investment Management Company] that beat the market every year for, I think 17 years.

It's an extraordinarily fabulous movie where Tom Stoppard--my favorite living playwright, wrote a good chunk of the screenplay, where he co-wrote it; I don't know how much of it is his. For decades, statisticians, social scientists, psychologists, and economists among them Nobel Prize winners have spent massive amounts of precious time thinking about whether streaks actually exist. Is it a fallacy to believe in the hot hand in the NBA three-point contest? The second half rebuts this thesis with the idea that sometimes the truth lies nearby but needs a bit of excavation, often in the form of new data. When they think you're dead, Romeo is going to come back and he's going to sweep you away and take you and live happily ever after. Is there any way to predict that? You're such a good storyteller and such a good writer. And I think that emotional satisfaction is such a delicious feeling, to use a word you used before. You said we bet accordingly: we know it's not real.

But at the end of the day I read this to learn about "the hot hand" not Raoul Wallenberg's brave exploits in Europe. There were tons of interesting anecdotes and case studies that merged coherently under the umbrella of the study of streaks, spanning Shakespeare and classical music, gambling, the justice system immigration judges , Soviet prisons what a fascinating story , active This was a fun book that reminded me of how much I enjoy the genre of modern sportswriting meets pop psychology meets statistics a la Lewis, Gladwell, Epstein , and it did add a twist on the standard setup for a book of this genre. Maybe it's my fault for overestimating how interested I was in finding out if the hot hand is real. To view it, click here. Fans of Michael Lewis and Malcolm Gladwell will devour this one And, then I'd realized after I graded seven or eight in a row, I'm thinking: I'm going to go back and look at those seven and eight and see if I need to make an adjustment based on--I would start doing that. And those times stick with us. Verified Purchase. Russ Roberts: Oh yeah, I'm glad you're talking about this.

Ben Cohen: Well, I think Amos Tversky said, 'We see patterns where they don't exist and we invent causes to explain them. And they're inhibited. Russ Roberts: Well, the clumpy thing is interesting. It sort of gave me a regimen, a routine, rather than just coming to a computer every morning and saying, 'I wonder what's going to happen today. Shakespeare wrote comedies, tragedies, histories--I think are the three main categories. It looks like you just kind of breeze along. The author is a wonderful storyteller, has crafted a seamless book, has a great sense of humor, and has a deep understanding of a variety of topics. You can simply tell when players are hot when you see them ablaze. Amazon Second Chance Pass it on, trade it in, give it a second life. I think I've given this example before.

Russ Roberts: when Shaquille O'Neal misses his fourth or fifth free throw in a row, does the sixth get even less likely? Somewhere there's a Shakespeare--maybe it's you, Ben--writing three great works in a very short period of time. He instituted something of a solution in his own life. Again I enjoyed each and every person that the book focused on because Ben Cohen managed to obtain so much information on each person, and has very impressive "writing chops". Hardcover , pages. It is okay. Play by play, essentially. And one in the early s that questioned the biases of earlier statistical analyses, suggesting that the hot hand might actually exist in basketball.

Ring Smart Home Security Systems. You are in the zone. Amazon Rapids Fun stories for kids on the go. There aren't many page-turners about probability and uncertainty. Whereas, you can sort of tap into that. That's just how randomness works. And I think we're in the middle now of a huge pushback against that. Ben Cohen: Or, why didn't the messengers just leave the quarantine house? And it's a page-turner. These include a high school basketball team that adopted a winning strategy of shooting the ball only when very close to the basket or very far away, the success of NBA star shooter Stephen Curry and the interplay between an unlikely MLB starting pitcher and batter on a sticky Texas evening.

I love the genre that tackles issues or questions combining human psychology, data, trends and storytelling. Now, it would be great if we could do that with an asylum system, right? A clearly articulated premise or definition yields a focused argument and a focused book. We all should get busy. It's simply a matter of seeing patterns and randomness. Ben Cohen: The Princess Bride Comments are closed. The difference between me and Seth C.

When Larry Bird showed up for that Sue me. Because, I think that this does affect all of us in different ways, even if we are not playing basketball or going to a casino or grading economics exams. And when I'm not, it doesn't bother me that I'm not writing so much because I know it's not as good. It also provides anecdotal evidence through big time names like Steph curry and Shakespeare Summary: I would recommend this for two reasons. Could it really have been that bad? Russ Roberts: Oh yeah, I'm glad you're talking about this. I think we can all make our own judgments and decisions from there. Cohen also exposes how streak-related incentives can be manipulated, from the five-syllable word that helped break arcade profit records to an arc of black paint that allowed Stephen Curry to transform from future junior high coach into the greatest three-point shooter in NBA history.

So, this was for foraging; and the world was clumped. There are people whose hot streaks are going to be rooted in this great upheaval and this incredible disruption to our lives. Jeff McAlpin Aug 19 at pm. I mean, we really live in random environments, and yet this bias of the mind or what we have always thought to be a bias the mind didn't leave us. This book tells a really interesting story about the understanding of The Hot Hand, primarily in basketball. He does do that, but his argument is lost among a broad collection of often irrelevant stories. A brilliant and buoyant investigation into the existence or not of streaks, from a rising star at the Wall Street Journal. Russ Roberts: Or the other way.

We know how far away the defender was from the person who was taking the shot. If not for the content of the book, its writing is one-star, amateur-level. Amazon Second Chance Pass it on, trade it in, give it a second life. Ben Cohen: So, if you walk into an NBA [National Basketball Association] arena and you see Steph Curry make three shots in a row, everybody in the arena thinks that he's making a fourth shot. In certain industries, it's very useful. We come to a different conclusion in our mind. Ben Cohen: Thank you for having me. Ben Cohen: Of course, there's a factor of confidence here. And so, this is just a standard real life plausible thing. It's like being on a cruise ship and watching Titanic.

Ben Cohen: I should have noticed. My guest is author and journalist, Ben Cohen. Chanel Miller. Lists with This Book. And that's why I think control is so important. And one in the early s that questioned the biases of earlier statistical analyses, suggesting that the hot hand might actually exist in basketball. I think we all have that brush, whether it's on the basketball court, whether it's at work, whether it's playing tennis or golf or racquetball or squash or anything. If you want to know why they're all related, Ben Cohen can tell you. I think we can all make our own judgments and decisions from there. And, that result held for about 35 years, until it was really kind of called into question over the last three or four years--with work that was just as counterintuitive as that first famous paper.

It doesn't come naturally to us. So, when Steph Curry shoots from 35 feet with two hands in his face, it's not the same as when he is taking a layup. This book is not yet featured on Listopia. Music that's driving and exhilarating. So, we try to bottle that magical feeling for as long as we can. It gets at some critical elements of human behavior, somehow explained through exacting detail in a way that is very digestible. I have to have total silence. They don't like to push the person over the railing to stop the trolley because they have to be active, and they'd rather let just--it comes back to our question of control to some extent.

Their music wasn't random. Although there were a few instances it felt as if the puzzles he was attempting to piece together was excessively forced along with a redundant amount of dispensable repeats. Showing It's a very, it's a neat way of thinking about the bias. And, that is a trivial example. I mean, it has no effect But, he did; and he was able to have both ideas in his own mind. Cohen has a lot to explain and he does it well, but I'm still not sure if I can say I"ve ever really have had The Hot Hand. The scouts would look at a player and say, 'Oh, he's a great prospect. But it's also about something even geniuses disagree about!

It's like being on a cruise ship and watching Titanic. Which, you know, I have to say, I wrote this book over the last two or or three years. So, when Steph Curry shoots from 35 feet with two hands in his face, it's not the same as when he is taking a layup. Overall, I kind of liked this book, but I hope that we'd get something better than this in the future to explain the hot hand phenomenon. And Larry Bird allegedly said, and I'm sure it's true, 'Who's finishing second? One that is so subtle that, you know, the world's brightest mathematicians and statisticians missed it for 35 years. My guest is author and journalist, Ben Cohen. Start reading on your Kindle in under a minute.

And that is why we were so drawn to the hot hand and we all believed in it so fiercely. I think I've given this example before. Russ Roberts: I don't know when it's going to happen. It's because all of the major papers about the hot hand over the years have been through the lens of basketball. In basketball, this is when a player makes shot after shot. The author presented some interesting ideas and examples, but I feel that there were many times where the author was "reaching" with his examples to prove his point, especially his example regarding Shakespeare and the plague. It's a random event. Russ Roberts: Yeah. Russ Roberts: But, the other point I think I want to make--and then we'll move on to some of the other applications; so, the non-basketball fans sit tight, we're getting there--is that, if you have seen a game like that, if you've seen an athlete in their prime who has an extraordinary night, of course, it could just be random. To ask other readers questions about The Hot Hand , please sign up.

Russ Roberts: Well, the clumpy thing is interesting. And so, I just found that such a wonderful contradiction. Of course, there are billions of dollars on the line in a baseball game; but really we're talking about calling balls and strikes. Ben Cohen: He tells all of his friends about it and buys champagne and goes to a steakhouse that night. After providing some useful insights into the hot hand, Cohen says pp. The transitions are bad My thought is that when players make a good shot they have reduced their variability by remembering the feel or mechanics it took. Ben Cohen: I should have noticed. Apr 10, Batgirl13 rated it really liked it Shelves: books-i-own , science , history.

There are times when I just know that I'm going to write well and I'm in that zone and I try to write a lot in that time. Shakespeare wrote comedies, tragedies, histories--I think are the three main categories. And he knows it's going in, and he knew it was going in when he released it. The Steph Curry example is fascinating to me because there's another psychological aspect of this, I think, that's important in the sports following sense, which is: I want to revere him as an athlete. There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Russ Roberts: For me--I want to make one other comment though, and then I'll give you my own personal take on my hot hand. Details if other :. Showing

Time-stamps are below! So, one of the things that really appealed to me about this whole saga is that it was deeply contrarian at every turn-- Russ Roberts: It's so satisfying-- Ben Cohen: I mean, that's one of the things that are so delicious about Moneyball is that the contrarians came in and they were right. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required. The plague was this constant force in Shakespeare's life, which I didn't realize until writing this book. Russ Roberts: Well, I was just going to say Wade Boggs ate chicken every day before he played baseball, and he did hit, throw over and made the Hall of Fame, so obviously chicken helps. We've talked about Moneyball in the program, Michael Lewis's book. The stories entertain, but some have nothing to do with the hot hand; some are so detailed, the relationship to the hot hand is lost, and some relate to the hot hand with only tangential connections. Chanel Miller. But, when he gets to the talk, one of the first things he said was, 'I want to thank all my employees.

The fact that--I make an argument, anyway, and I think it's true that one hot game, the hottest game of Steph Curry's life really changed everything for him. I appreciated the expansive amount of research the author put together in order to present his case. A clearly articulated premise or definition yields a focused argument and a focused book. It's very well written the author has some serious writing chops. We come to a different conclusion in our mind. Apr 23, Phil Simon rated it it was amazing Shelves: curent-affairs , sports. Or a business book. About Ben Cohen. But, the point is, they're not a random sample of shots.

He instituted something of a solution in his own life. Because, when you do get hot, you take harder shots and they are less likely to go in. But, I think this point about control and not control is very important. The transitions are bad Ben Cohen: Well, the interesting thing of course, is that the Gambler's Fallacy, in many ways, is the corollary of the hot hand-- Russ Roberts: Explain that. I read the Hot Hand in two sittings and loved it. Using SportVU data, they were able to study over 83, shots from the season. You feel like you're in the zone. Although there were a few instances it felt as if the puzzles he was attempting to piece together was excessively forced along with a redundant amount of dispensable repeats.

There'll be streaks of three and four and five heads in a row, tails in a row, and even maybe streaks of eight or nine. Musicians, artists, scientists, directors, writers and many other creators experience the hot hand as well. Back to top. It's because it's unjust. Everybody looked at the same problem and they saw it in a new light, which I found really interesting. This book is not yet featured on Listopia. Listening to the podcast yesterday, I thought the opposite of a hot hand might be—cold feet! The scouts would look at a player and say, 'Oh, he's a great prospect. May 10, Robert P.

It was not simply that the original paper missed this. And, then he goes out and he has the game of his life. I assume you've felt this at some points in your life. Russ Roberts: Yeah, we should explain what the hot hand is for non-sports fans. I mean, if you're a basketball fan in the last five years, you've seen Steph Curry pull up five, eight, maybe 10 feet behind the three-point line. Russ Roberts: Correct, '93, ' And I'd say, 'Well, maybe it's just lucky. I thought that was such a beautiful--and to reward the City of Cleveland was, it was part of it, too.

The transitions are bad The hot hand fallacy describes the way people think that a successful outcome increases t The book is named for "the hot hand", a phenomenon where a person suddenly goes on a hot-streak. There was a problem filtering reviews right now. And it took him a few years once he returned to East Grand Forks, Minnesota to get used to that. I mean, that is sort of the Shakespeare example. Really interesting book. But they're not quite the same. Steph Curry is doing it with nine people on the court who were the best player on every team that they had ever been on until getting to that court. I don't know if it's flow or whatever you want to call it, that process that--it's like an amusement park ride when it goes well.

And, then of course, there were nights where it was a different pattern, and so on. Ben Cohen: Uh, 10th grade. I mean, you understand the risk and you don't want to think about that. But it's also about something even geniuses disagree about! Musicians, artists, scientists, directors, writers and many other creators experience the hot hand as well. And, the odds, to me, that you could tease that out, given the complexity of each case, then you're going to pretend you're controlling for it. Is it well-written? Listening to the podcast yesterday, I thought the opposite of a hot hand might be—cold feet!

It looks like you just kind of breeze along. Joshua B Miller, Adam Sanjurjo IGIER Working Paper, The NBA Three-Point Contest has been considered an ideal setting to study the hot hand, as it showcases the elite professional shooters that hot hand beliefs are typically directed towards, but in an environment that eliminates many of the confounds present in game action. And, once the science gets caught up to it, it would be really fascinating to explore again. But, the point is, they're not a random sample of shots. Is it well-written? Steph Curry is doing it with nine people on the court who were the best player on every team that they had ever been on until getting to that court. A little disjointed at times but some fascinating vignettes on the conclusions that can be gleaned logically reading large sets of data. Joseph Bikart. When he was in music, everything he was trying to do was to emphasize plan A.

Revised Sep. The author also does a good job of showing a common denominator in a love for basketball among the various people featured in the. It's not because, 'Oh, I might make a lot of money. And, then he goes out and he has the game of his life. I mean, that is sort of the Shakespeare example. That's the technical term. The bad times will come. Or it is a little bit of both. But I happened to look at the faces.

It's not because, 'Oh, I might make a lot of money. He was this statistical savant because--in part because he bothered to keep track of the chronology of shots. And the reason he doesn't get the message is? Is there any way to predict that? Details if other :. Which is odd cause the first half is spot on in regards to staying on topic and getting to the point. The answer is not only surprising, but instructive. And so, in investing, I think there is an enormous temptation, unlike the casino, to think that you know what's going on and you're really good at it.

Using SportVU data, they were able to study over 83, shots from the season. Overall, I kind of liked this book, but I hope that we'd get something better than this in the future to explain the hot hand phenomenon. So, the world has changed over 35 years. They're seeing them in an entirely different order. The world changing and the way that we see the world changing--you know, it was sort of this whips-on[? Its characters are interesting and vivid. Know My Name: A Memoir. And I really love that. And, I think that what that first paper found was incredibly admirable. Although it's in Shakespearean-- Ben Cohen: And of course it's like basically written in a different language if you're in eighth grade.

Russ Roberts: But what's funny about it--for me, it's the flip side of Moneyball. This concept is highly advanced in manufacturing systems where standard deviations and control limits are constantly measured, improved, and refined. Of course, you don't understand it. So, Shakespeare has a really good year in, I think, , right? Ben Cohen: Thank you, Russ. From what I can tell reading the paper, the dominant change was that they were able to account for many changes to shot selection during a streak, both from the perspective of the hot hand player and from the opposing team, as well as many other factors, and just generally they had a far richer dataset, and controlled for many many things. But the ball is still in his hands. There were, like, six people crammed into the car because they all wanted to ride with Herb. The book started off great, but it kind of went off the rails the further it went along.

Gambler's Fallacy. But, you go to a roulette wheel and you know that you have no control over what's going to happen. Product details Item Weight : And I would show him the paper showing that there isn't, but he was very adamant about it. And, at the end of a long night--I used to grade all my own exams; and they were not, again, not multiple choice, they were--I have a great amount of exams when I taught and-something people--I think there were people at UCLA--because I felt that was important. Ben, come on. Groups that, they're not Irish, but there's a relationship. Everybody looked at the same problem and they saw it in a new light, which I found really interesting.

One person found this helpful. It's like being on a cruise ship and watching Titanic. Return to Book Page. Because, when you do get hot, you take harder shots and they are less likely to go in. He has seen it for himself. Their data on the hot hand is compelling. This was a fun book that reminded me of how much I enjoy the genre of modern sportswriting meets pop psychology meets statistics a la Lewis, Gladwell, Epstein , and it did add a twist on the standard setup for a book of this genre. It is okay. You know, in the book, I write about an Iraqi sculptor who applied for asylum whose case gets derailed for a whole bunch of different reasons, in part because there's an incredible backlog right now that the asylum system has really failed in the United States. Start reading on your Kindle in under a minute.

And I think we're in the middle now of a huge pushback against that. It's a random event. Fascinating anecdotes interweave into a great read. He has seen it for himself. Whereas, you can sort of tap into that. So, for Steph Curry to take a shot when he's hot and to turn around knowing it's going in, think about that. Do you feel that as a writer? Stephen King listens to rock music while he writes, which is--I'd tell that to my dad; he'd say, 'I can't do anything while I'm writing. Of course, there are billions of dollars on the line in a baseball game; but really we're talking about calling balls and strikes.

So, people who are entrusted to be authorities to make important-- Russ Roberts: Arbiters-- Ben Cohen: decisions. And that's a very lovely compliment and I very much appreciate it. It's a way to get those chemicals flowing in your brain, I think, that flow when you actually achieve something that's real. And that was one of the things that really appealed to me about this-- Russ Roberts: That's a beautiful story. No real new information in here but a lot of fun stories nicely interwoven. For decades, statisticians, social scientists, psychologists, and economists among them Nobel Prize winners have spent massive amounts of precious time thinking about whether streaks actually exist. And, the lessons of his great, great grandfather who came over from a different country, still apply to him in And so, this is just a standard real life plausible thing. So, if you think about it, it's really a bonkers plot line. Ben Cohen: It's so interesting, though, because when she does take the potion, you could easily see it becoming a comedy, right?

He took shots after shots which he had no business of making, but all of them went down. But the subject matter is SO diverse Steph Curry, Van Gogh forgeries, hedge fund performance, Shakespeare and the plague and the arguments are so general that I can not recall any point that Cohen truly made. That's deciding whether or not someone stays in the United States, and really it's deciding whether or not they live or they die. What changed is that it was a plague year. The book starts well going from one story lin I received this book compliments of Custom House through the Goodreads giveaway program. Or was he just getting a lot of good sleep those 12 months? I think we can all make our own judgments and decisions from there. Apr 10, Batgirl13 rated it really liked it Shelves: books-i-own , science , history. And, the lessons of his great, great grandfather who came over from a different country, still apply to him in For any fans of human psychology, or numbers geeks, wolves of wall street, basketball obsessives — and anyone else who loves great stories that hint at the mysteries behind our decision-making, belief…and occasional runaway success.

Depends on if you are hot or not. She was the one who discovered Amazon for Bill. And we do overestimate trickiness, and we exaggerate the effect of the hot hand. Each individual vignette keeps you hooked, yet you never lose sight of the overall narrative arc. And I think we're in the middle now of a huge pushback against that. It's a random event. Thanks for telling us about the problem. The author presented some interesting ideas and examples, but I feel that there were many times where the author was "reaching" with his examples to prove his point, especially his example regarding Shakespeare and the plague. Ben Cohen: Well, I think Amos Tversky said, 'We see patterns where they don't exist and we invent causes to explain them.

But, it's funny and witty and brilliant, sad and moving and fun. Because, 'Obviously, it's not lucky, 17 heads in a row. They want you to think you're a master of it. Ben Cohen: This thing that we all think to be true, only to be told by really smart people that it's not; only to realize that maybe it actually was. Even if you did, the patterns and streaks would still be there. For a writer less skilled it could have fallen apart but he strikes exactly the right tone. There is a very interesting magazine article in here. Start reading on your Kindle in under a minute.

Russ Roberts: For me--I want to make one other comment though, and then I'll give you my own personal take on my hot hand. And what he does now is, when he assigns exams and papers to his teaching assistants [TAs] to grade, instead of simply giving them to the TA and saying. Pros: 1. The author also does a good job of showing a common denominator in a love for basketball among the various people featured in the. There've been some evolutionary psychologists who have looked into this and found that there were rewards for this in primitive humans; and even monkeys believe in the hot hand. It also provides anecdotal evidence through big time names like Steph curry and Shakespeare to showcase instances where the "hot hand" presented itself and what caused it to present itself. Amazingly well written. My curiosity to the subject started to run dry by the middle of the book, concocted with an increasingly amount of disorientating at the lack of well intented transitions in between cases. It's written in an entertaining fashion, I'd read other books by Ben.